Thursday, October 9, 2008

Update 9 Oct

Well the last few days are still down & old model would not have exited.  Exit target tomorrow is yesterday's high of 4493. 
 
I reviewed the SPI data & found this week had:
  1. Largest postive percentage Open-Close range in history and largest Points range since 1987 crash
  2. Largest High-Low range (points & %) since 1987
Crazy times.  What annoyed me a little/lot is the range is higher than anything I tested & I considered another exit rule based on 5 or 6 % profit target but up till a few weeks ago it never got hit. If I was using that I would have been out for a massive profit.  Personally after the crazy overight action & since I consider this a training period, I exited early in case we were in for bath again today.  Didn't happen but I'd rather conserve capital.  I have decided that letting a profit go isn't great so am adding the percent target exit in now.
 
Will post a chart of both versions.
 
dave

No comments: